2019 Preakness Stakes Sleepers
This year’s Preakness Stakes will be of the historic variety. For the first time since 1996, the horse responsible for winning the Kentucky Derby won’t participate.
Country House took said honors back on May 4th, albeit in a controversial manner due to a win by way of disqualification. That was the first of its kind at the Kentucky Derby, too, setting up this year’s run for the Triple Crown to be one for the record books.
Except the Triple Crown is already settled. Horses can compete for individual wins over the next two races, but there won’t be a horse vying to sweep the prestigious three-race event.
Country House bows out due to an illness, opening the door more than ever for randomness to take place in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Needless to say, horse racing betting enthusiasts can think a little outside the box going into the 2019 Preakness Stakes. Horses that would have been the top favorites like Country House or Maximum Security aren’t on hand to give it a go, meaning everyone needs to look in another direction.
But where? I’ve got a handful of Preakness Stakes sleepers that could be worth your time. Let’s take a quick look at the latest Preakness Stakes odds and see which value picks stand out the most.
2019 Preakness Stakes Odds
Improbable starts us off as the timid favorite. You are not losing any money with this +250 price, which loosely tells us this is the horse the betting public expects to win but in that same breath suggests he is not a heavy favorite.
Here’s how things shake out for the entire horse pool over at SportsBetting.ag.
You can check the latest odds at any of our recommended Preakness Stakes betting sites.
We can gently lean on a little bit of data: 51% of favorites tend to win this race (which probably tells us very little), and non-Kentucky Derby runners rarely win phase two of the Triple Crown.
There is something to be said for momentum and high-level competition. Regardless of how they fared at the 2019 Kentucky Derby, that’s typically the pool of horses to start with.
Does that mean you can’t bet on Alwaysmining, Bourbon War, Anothertwistafate, Owendale, Warrior’s Charge, Signalman, Laughing Fox, or Market King? I’d say not, especially since they collectively account for over 50% of the field.
That collection of horses is going to play a huge hand in making things interesting, while the pricing everywhere is bound to offer up plenty of value for bettors.
We know who the favorites and immediate challengers are here, though. Which Preakness Stakes sleepers should you feel good about?
Here are four I have my eye on the most going into this weekend’s huge race.
I’ve actually heard some horse racing experts are not into Alwaysmining at all, and perhaps it’s the price. But +800 for a talented horse that’s riding a ridiculous six-race winning streak?
Uh, yeah, sign me up.
I still don’t know if I’d go hard here, and based on all of the pricing, is this even a true sleeper? Maybe, maybe not, but Alwaysmining is on a tear and has fended off some big names like Gray Magician, Win Win Win, and Tybalt in some of these events.
Winning streaks don’t guarantee a thing. But form and performance against elite competition do signal a potential winner. I don’t get the immediate lack of love for a winning horse, and considering the price still puts Alwaysmining in the sleeper arena, I think this is an option for bettors.
Win Win Win +1000
It’s all in the name, am I right? Seriously, though, Win Win Win may only have one victory to his name, but he also finished third at the Tampa Bay Derby and second at the Blue Grass Stakes.
Those were strong runs against horses like Tacitus and Signalman, while a 9th-place finish at this year’s Kentucky Derby is nothing to sniff at.
Win Win Win isn’t a favorite, but he’s been very competitive, and with a brand-new field set for the Preakness, he could be an interesting sleeper worth backing.
Another colt I don’t mind looking at with an identical +1000 price tag is Anothertwistafate, who has been on a nice run with 2nd-place finishes or better in each of his last five events.
Anothertwistafate finished second to Owendale in his most recent race at Lexington and finished second at the Sunland Derby following a win at the El Camino Real Derby.
That ended up being his third consecutive victory, displaying his ability to dominate and withstand tough competition. Hopefully, that at least keeps Anothertwistafate in the mix, and if that’s the case, this +1000 price tag could be worth wagering on.
Lastly, we come to Bodexpress, which actually finished 13th at the Kentucky Derby. That’s not a selling point, to be sure, but that does remind us that he’s competed against some of the best horses and will get a second crack at doing so.
That, and Bodexpress is really only now gaining experience and had previously finished 4th or better in his other three races. One was the 2019 Florida Derby, where he finished second only to Maximum Security.
At this point, that isn’t a big deal, but that was the true winner of the Kentucky Derby prior to that infamous DQ.
The big thing it shows us is Bodexpress can beat one of the most talented horses in the circuit, and now that he’s back in another huge race and two of the top-performing horses from the Kentucky Derby are gone, things could get interesting.
He also offers a +2000 price that only two other horses hold going into the 2019 Preakness Stakes. Of the trio, Bodexpress figures to be the sleeper worth betting on.
Who Will Win the 2019 Preakness Stakes?
While there is certainly merit in betting on some Preakness Stakes sleepers this year, I think I’d spend the majority of my cash on the favorite.
Improbable wasn’t some spare at the Kentucky Derby. He still competed at a high level and finished 4th, which comes in as his worst career finish to date.
His previous runs included 2nd at the Arkansas Derby, 2nd at the Rebel Stakes, and then a first-place finish at the Los Alamitos Futurity. That was his third first-place run, too, while his entire resume showcases how well he can compete and some major events he either took down or came very close to doing so.
The point is Improbable can run, and having Bob Baffert as his trainer can’t hurt his chances. I think there’s mild merit for most of the horses here, but why stray from such nice value when it comes to a favorite?
In a sense, Improbable may just end up being the greatest sleeper of them all.