- Nuggets vs Heat player props are live ahead of Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday (June 7)
- Jimmy Butler has been held below 26 points in four of his past five starts
- Don’t miss the best Nuggets vs Heat player prop targets and same-game parlay picks for Game 3 below
The NBA Finals shift to Miami on Wednesday for Game 3, with the Nuggets and Heat tied 1-1. Miami overcame the odds in Game 2 on the road to even the series, erasing a big fourth quarter deficit on the strength of some terrific shooting.
Despite the Heat having the momentum, it’s Denver that’s laying points in the NBA odds. Betting against the spread is only one of the many ways to get action down on Wednesday’s contest, and we’re looking to find value in the player props market, as well as the same-game parlay streets.
Nuggets vs Heat Player Props – Game 3
|Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points||-105|
|Kevin Love Over 4.5 Rebounds||-175|
Our Miami vs Denver player props card starts with the under on Jimmy Butler’s point total of 25.5. Butler followed up a dreadful Game 1 performance with a better effort in Game 2, but still fell well short of this total for a second consecutive game.
Odds as of June 6 at Caesars. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Nuggets vs Heat Game 3.
NBA Finals Player Prop #1: Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points
Butler has actually fallen short of 26 points in four of his past five outings, looking nothing like the Playoff Jimmy we’ve seen at different points this postseason. There’s a couple reasons to believe his underwhelming point totals might continue, starting with who’s guarding him.
Aaron Gordon has guarded Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Butler so far in the playoffs. He’s done a masterful job on all four of them, helping limit Butler to 34 total points in the NBA Finals, on just 39% shooting.
One thing that’s been evident the first 2 games is that Jimmy Butler hasnt had a whole lot for Aaron Gordon’s defense. Length has bothered him with his ankle from being able to get sufficient elevation on drives and pull ups. Butler’s focus the first 2 games has been to largely… pic.twitter.com/SAgGItRRVI
— J Ryth (@KDs1stBurner) June 6, 2023
Butler likes to bully his defenders to create separation and easy looks, but he simply can’t do that to Gordon. The 27-year-old is bigger, longer and stronger than Jimmy, and quick enough to keep Butler in front of him.
Also working against Butler is his nagging ankle injury that’s clearly bothering him more than he’s letting on. Over his last seven contests he’s averaging only 20.7 points, with three contests under 16 points, and zero 30-point efforts.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points (-105)
NBA Finals Player Prop #2: Kevin Love Over 4.5 Rebounds
Our next target is the over on 4.5 rebounds for Kevin Love. The veteran forward was inserted into the starting lineup in Game 2, and performed admirably with a 6 point, 10 rebound effort in just 22 minutes.
Love’s promotion was an effort by the Heat to add more size, and seeing how well it paid off should encourage Miami to run it back in Game 3. Love was +18 in Game 2, and has eclipsed 4.5 boards in 12 of his 13 playoff outings this season when he’s logged at least 14 minutes.
Kevin Love on Spo saying Love should’ve started in G1: “I have the most trust in our coaching staff.”
“Whenever he calls my name it’s on me, being a pro, to be ready. Certainly going small in that Boston series was necessary & you know Caleb was incredible, he got the job done.” pic.twitter.com/xJX1qLaVPD
— alex (@tropicalblanket) June 7, 2023
His Game 2 performance prompted Heat coach Erik Spoelstra to say he should have started Love in Game 1 as well, which suggests Love should log plenty of minutes on Wednesday.
Pick: Kevin Love Over 4.5 Rebounds (-175)
Nuggets vs Heat Same-Game Parlay Picks
Denver head coach Mike Malone was disgusted by the team’s Game 2 effort, and wasn’t shy about it after the game. That should light a fire under the Nuggets and we expect them to bounce back in Game 3 to reclaim the series lead.
Nuggets vs Heat Same-Game Parlay
|Denver Nuggets Moneyline||-135|
|Denver Nuggets Over 105.5 Points||-175|
|Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists||-230|
|Jimmy Butler Over 4.5 Assists||-380|
|Same-Game Parlay Odds||+270|
The Nuggets have won their last three road playoff games, and we’ll start our Denver vs Miami same-game parlay with them on the moneyline. We’ll also back them to eclipse 105 points, a feat they’ve accomplished in nine of their past 10 playoff games.
Nikola Jokic and the NBA Championship odds favorites have performed better offensively as visitors than in Denver, posting an absurd 120.3 offensive rating on the road during the postseason.
The Heat’s strategy is clearly to limit Jokic’s playmaking, resulting in even more distribution work for Jamal Murray. The Canadian has 20 assists through two games of the NBA Finals, and we’ll bank on him dishing out at least six dimes in this SGP.
Finally, let’s round out the parlay with over 4.5 assists for Butler. His lack of scoring has not hampered his assist numbers, as he’s produced at least five dimes in nine straight starts.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay (+270)
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