The local results came as quite the shock to those at the top of the Tory party, the weekend before the locals the Tory expectations management was for around 600 seat loses which means they were really expecting losses of somewhere around 400 to 500 seat losses so they could spin the result as better than the expectations/polls. The result was much more horrific for Sunak’s party.
I’ll need some solid data rather than anecdata that shy switchers are actually happening, the locals in 2024 will give us some more data, but given the two out of the last three general elections the polling industry has had shockers so it isn’t impossible the polls are wrong at the next election either. They may well be misunderestimating the Labour lead/collapse in the Tory share. Bet accordingly.