Sam Noakes vs Gianluca Ceglia Predictions: Europe, then the world?

Sam Noakes makes the first defence of his European lightweight title this Friday, September 6 against Gianluca Ceglia. The 12-round championship bout takes place at the great boxing cauldron of York Hall in Bethnal Green. TNT Sports will televise the action live.

Here are my Noakes vs Ceglia predictions ahead of this continental title scrap.

Noakes took a major step-up in class in his last bout. I correctly predicted that quality veteran Yvan Mendy would become the first fighter to take him the distance. 

That bout netted Noakes the European title he defends on Friday. But what it also gave the knockout artist was a vital education. The Maidstone man was taken into the championship rounds for the first time by a man accustomed to title bouts. Mendy himself has held the European title in the past and also has form in upsetting highly-touted prospects. The Frenchman was the first fighter to defeat Olympic gold medalist Luke Campbell, back in 2015.

With that test passed, Noakes settles into the role of European champion this Friday. Standing in his way is an experienced 34-year-old campaigner who has come close to the fringes of world level in the past. Ceglia won the IBF international title back in 2017, though he has spent most of his career fighting in his native Italy against European-level opposition.

The pair actually share a common foe in Mendy. The Frenchman outpointed Ceglia in 2022 for the European title Noakes now holds. The Italian made things competitive, but ultimately succumbed over the 12 rounds.

It does point to a certain durability in the veteran. Anthony Yigit is the only boxer to have stopped Ceglia. Losing to a genuine world class competitor who has challenged for world titles, holds little shame for the Italian. While beating the world’s best may be beyond him, Ceglia remains a challenge for European-tier fighters.

Noakes wants to prove himself at world level, but first he must solidify himself on the continent. Ceglia is a fine step in that direction. Perhaps an easier task than Mendy, Ceglia is still a fighter who has been a factor on this scene for a number of years. He has held the European Union belt and challenged for the main European title before.

There was nothing cautious about Noakes’ performance last time, despite the lack of a stoppage. The Brit worked Mendy to the body with hard shots, before opening up to the head. A lesser man than his decorated opponent would have fallen. 

I fear that Ceglia is a lesser man. Durable and game, but not equipped to push Noakes further than Mendy did. The champion might add victim number 14 to his knockout column this Friday.

Noakes vs Ceglia Fight Odds

Noakes is a 1/50 favourite to win his first title defence. Ceglia lags behind at 14/1 while you can back the draw at 16/1.

Noakes vs Ceglia Full Card

Sam Noakes vs. Gianluca Ceglia for European lightweight title 

Masood Abdulah vs. George Stewart for Commonwealth featherweight title 

Steve Cairns vs. Ezequiel Gregores; Super-lightweight 

Luke McCormack vs. Petr Brodsky; Super-lightweight 

Joshua Frankham vs. TBA; Middleweight 

Charlie Hickford vs. Darwing Martinez; Featherweight 

Christian Bozzia vs. Joshua Ocampo; Super-featherweight

Noakes vs Ceglia Prediction

I think Noakes can stop his opponent here. Ceglia is a solid opponent and he has proven durable, the Yigit fight aside. But the way Noakes fights, the constant pressure and literate attacks, will be too much for the challenger I fear.

My selection here is Noakes to win in the fourth round at 6/1. It is the session in which the majority of his finishes have come. Noakes has stopped four opponents in the fourth round. I think Ceglia will be next.