According to the latest stats by Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen, Talon Esports has a 100% chance of qualifying for The International 12 with their current 1120 DPC points. Noxville ran over 100,000 simulations for the upcoming Bali Major and in each case, Talon proceeds to this year’s TI.
The upcoming Major is the last chance for teams to earn the all-important DPC points necessary for direct invites to TI. Six teams have already secured their ticket to Seattle for their chance to lift the Aegis of the Immortal.
Talon Esports’ mid-season performance secured a TI invite.
Most of the points earned by Talon came from their performance at the end of the first tour and throughout the second. At the Lima Major, the Southeast Asian squad impressed everyone with an impressive run in the lower bracket, taking down TI11 champions Team Spirit, along with North America’s strongest team, Shopify Rebellion.
Talon’s bronze medal awarded them 300 DPC points, and they earned an additional 400 for winning the Spring Tour in the ultra-competitive SEA region. Talon was able to make it to the top eight in Berlin, collecting an additional 200 points. While the team fumbled in the third tour, their fourth-place finish was enough to push them over the threshold and get them the points necessary for The International.
The Bali Major is the last chance for teams to qualify for TI
China is the only region so far that hasn’t locked a spot at TI nor does China have a team that has a 90%+ chance of attending. PSG.LGD is the most likely team to qualify with their X points, but it’s still only a 78% chance to make it. Speaking of low chances to qualify, TSM is currently in a scary spot, with only 900 DPC points and no chance to earn more. BetBoom Team currently holds the 12th spot in the DPC ranking with 760 points but they can earn more points if they do well in Bali.
There are several teams aiming to make a last push at the Bali Major in order to attend TI, chief among them are Team Aster and Execration. Both teams need at least a top-eight finish in order to secure the points necessary to avoid regional qualifiers.
Nouns’ surprise second-place finish in the North America DPC gives them a real shot of making it to the top 12 DPC ranking. It’s a tall order for the team as they haven’t had much success in the first two tours of 2023 and need at least a top-six placement to get anything worthwhile out of the Bali Major.
The team with the least likely chance to attend The International is Quest Esports with 232 points. Even if they win the Major and earn 600 points, that would put them at 832, ahead BetBoom Team true, but that also assumes no other team ahead of them gains any points, a very unlikely sequence of events.
All in all, nearly every team attending the Major has a realistic chance of acquiring enough points to qualify for Dota 2’s biggest tournament, the question is, which teams will thrive and which will fall in Bali?
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