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Technical Analysis – Will USDCHF start a new bullish wave?

Technical Analysis – Will USDCHF start a new bullish wave?

USDCHF is trading at the bottom of an upward-sloping channel, increasing speculation that the pair is preparing for its next bull run as traders are eagerly waiting for the US nonfarm payrolls release.

The Stochastic oscillator on the four-hour chart rotated northwards, but it has yet to exit the oversold region above 20, suggesting that some patience is still necessary. In other warning signals, the pair is still comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, questioning the case for an upside reversal.

A step above the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), which is currently acting as resistance around 0.9050, could navigate the pair towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.8850-0.9146 upleg and the 20-period SMA (middle Bollinger band), both at 0.9070. If the bulls breach that border, the price may advance towards 0.9110, while higher, it will attempt to crawl above May’s high of 0.9146 with scope to reach the channel’s upper boundary seen around 0.9165.

If sellers press the pair below the channel, immediate support could occur around the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 0.9020. A close lower could intensify downside pressure towards the 50% Fibonacci of 0.8983, while the 200-period SMA around 0.8965 may also attract interest in the event of a more aggressive decline.

Summing up, even though USDCHF seems to have found an ideal pivot point, the technical indicators cannot warrant an upturn in the price. For a proper rebound, the price will need to rise sustainably above 0.9075.

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