The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?
New .@YouGov – 17th May sees the CON+LAB aggregate drop below 50%
CON 24% =1
Lab : 24% -1
BRX : 18%=
LDem : 18% +2
Grn : 6% -1
UKIP : 2% =
CHUK : 2% =
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2019
Above is the latest YouGov polling with the most extraordinary Westminster voting figures that I can recall in recent times. For four parties to be within six points of each other is extraordinary and for the CON+LAB aggregate not to exceed 50% is completely unprecedented.
There is some historical precedents for Westminster voting polls to go slightly haywire before the Euro elections and in the past things have settled down quite quickly afterwards.
The Brexit party rise was largely predicted but what’s worrying both Labour and the Conservatives is that the Lib Dems have made a remarkable recovery with the highest poll share since the coalition was formed in May 2010.
There’s said to be a worry in LAB circles about the party’s defence of the London Mayoralty in eleven months time.
The voting data is the 9k+ sample YouGov poll that was mainly focus on the Euro elections that was published yesterday.