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The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters

The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters

Wikipedia table

The big number to remember when looking at the polls is that the Curtice projection for LAB to secure a majority is a 7% poll vote over the Tories. The Conservatives, meanwhile, can achieve a majority with a 3% GB vote lead

So that gives fair gap for LAB in the latest round of polling but, of course, the five-week general election campaign could change all of that. Just remember what happened to TMay at GE2017.

But Labour does not need an overall majority for Starmer to become PM. At the very least, he needs the Tories to lose enough seats so they could not win a Commons confidence motion. My guess is about 45 losses should just about do it.

Mike Smithson

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