I make this a 20.35% SNP to Lab swing. https://t.co/kbT1MNvoRW

— TSE (@TSEofPB) October 6, 2023

Benchmarks from Britain Predicts:

Labour margin of win in Rutherglen today will imply X Lab seats in Scotland

+15pts: 29 seats (+28) on 2019
+10pts: 21 seats
+5pts: 12 seats
+0pts: 3 seats
-5pts: 2 seats

Polls + my model points to a 10pt win. https://t.co/ehhNVmbHwv

— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) October 5, 2023

A reminder that the SNP have never lost a Westminster seat in a by-election so far

— British Electoral Politics (@electpoliticsuk) October 5, 2023

I *think* I’m right in saying that the last time Labour gained* a Scottish Westminster seat in a by-election was the last #Rutherglen by-election in 1964!

*Not counting the gain from the former speaker at Glasgow NE in 2009

— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) October 5, 2023

A reminder that if one of the stories is that Tory voters have gone en masse to Labour in Rutherglen, a repeat of such tactical voting next year across the central belt will hugely help bring about the end of Tory rule at Westminster

— Mark Diffley (@markdiffley1) October 5, 2023

? *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* ?

How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

LAB: 38 (+37)
SNP: 7 (-41)
CON: 7 (+1)
LDM: 5 (+3)

Changes w/ GE2019 Notional. pic.twitter.com/dfrTByC3Fd

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 6, 2023

returns to the party under Keir Starmer’s leadership and romps to victory in a seat held by the SNP.

— lee harpin (@lmharpin) October 6, 2023