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Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 17th, Including a +130 Total-Bases Prop

Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 17th, Including a +130 Total-Bases Prop

  • MLB player props are available for Monday’s MLB betting slate.
  • Grayson Rodriguez has a K/9 of 11.12 in his 10 starts in 2023.
  • Check out the best MLB player prop picks for July 17th, below

Monday’s MLB betting slate features 10 games, as it is a travel day for some teams, but that doesn’t stop us from finding MLB player props to lock in.

Luckily for us, I was able to find some bangers, with our first pick of the day being Grayson Rodriguez to go over 4.5 strikeouts.

Best MLB Player-Prop Bets on Monday, July 17

Prop Odds
Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts -150
Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Bases +130

The rookie pitcher for the Orioles has made 10 starts this year, and has a K/9 so high that it would be the sixth-highest in the MLB, if he pitched enough innings to qualify.

 

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Odds as of July 16 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code today to bet on Monday’s MLB player props. 

MLB Player Prop #1: Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Sure, we don’t love locking something in at -150 odds, but the reality is this play should be closer to -300, so we are getting some value here.

Now let me be clear, Rodriguez has not had a great start to his rookie year. He has a 7.35 ERA, and gave up 8 earned runs in two of his last three starts. But, luckily for us, he doesn’t need to pitch a great game to get to five strikeouts. As mentioned above, he actually strikes out a decent amount of batters even on starts where he gets shelled.

His K/9 is elite, and his strikeout % in general is at 26.5%, which would still put him in the top 20 of all pitchers this year. The reason why this number is so low, of course, is because there is the chance that he doesn’t even last three innings. With that said, he has hit this number in seven of 10 starts, including the last two, despite never pitching more than five innings in one single start.

Pick: Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

MLB Player Prop #2: Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Bases

It has been a while since we’ve had a total bases prop, but with only 10 games on Monday, I thought there was no better time to bring one back with a plus-money banger.

Moniak was a high draft pick for the Phillies, but he has seen his career turn around for the Angels after a disappointing stint in Philadelphia. He also mashes right-handed pitching, and the mound for the Yankees on Monday would be Luis Severino, who, you guessed it, is a righty.

Diving in on Severino’s stats, and he has not had a good year at all. He has a 7.38 ERA in 9 starts, and the advanced numbers don’t fare well either. He has a HR/9 of 2.32, which would be last in the MLB by a mile if he had pitched enough innings to qualify, and his barrel % allowed is 11.3%, which would be third-worst.

Meanwhile, Moniak has an ISO rate of 31.4%, which is considered excellent by FanGraphs standards, and a barrel rate of 14.2%, which is considered great and just below the excellent threshold. I also don’t hate Moniak’s home run odds at +390 either, but for this article, we will track the total bases specifically.

Pick: Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Bases (+130)

 

The post Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 17th, Including a +130 Total-Bases Prop appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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