The post NFL Week 16: Some futures bets, some Colts(!) bets, some Panthers(!!!) bets appeared first on SportsHandle.
I usually have a full portfolio of season-long awards bets, but outside of a 40-to-1 MVP ticket on Dak Prescott (insert sad trombone noise after last week’s drubbing by the Buffalo Bills) I’m woefully short on these markets.
Alas, there’s always next year … or maybe the next three weeks?
After all, very little is fully settled in the awards markets, starting with …
MVP
Brock Purdy has rocketed to the top o’ the online sports betting charts, as he’s now a -200 favorite at FanDuel. But things could change dramatically by the end of Christmas Day, after the Niners and Ravens have finished their game. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson takes the field as the second favorite for MVP at Caesars. at +525. A Ravens win on Jackson’s back could flip the odds for the award across the mobile betting apps.
Further down the board? Josh Allen has been surging, now at +1000 at BetMGM, and if the Bills run the table, he could easily find himself deep in the conversation. Dak can be had for +900, but I think better longshots are Christian McCaffrey at +1400 at Fanatics Sportsbook and Tyreek Hill at +2500 at FanDuel. Hill is probably a better bet, as McCaffrey’s and Purdy’s fortunes are tied together. But if the Dolphins win out, maybe get a bye, and Hill hits the 2,000-yard mark … well, all things considered, probably not, but still worth a sprinkle.
Coach of the year
This one is wide open. Dan Campbell is the favorite at +200 at DraftKings, followed by Shane Steichen at +300 and Demeco Ryans at +350. These are three coaches whose teams are outperforming expectations.
But what about Kyle Shanahan at +450, whose team is the best in the NFL? Or Mike McDaniel at +650, who has unlocked the Dolphins offense? Or Kevin Stefanski at +1200, who somehow has the Browns primed for the playoffs despite rummaging through the trash pile at quarterback? Or Sean McVay at +1600, who is taking a Rams team no one expected anything out of to the playoffs (probably)? (Worth noting: McVay was +3000 before the team’s Thursday night win.)
Wide open. A lot can happen here.
Comeback player of the year
Damar Hamlin died on the field last year, and this year has been active for four games, playing in two. Recorded two tackles. And has played a grand total of 16 snaps.
He’s the -700 favorite at DraftKings.
Now, clearly, by the definition of “comeback,” from death to 16 snaps is pretty significant. But will the voters see it that way? If not, you’ve got Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Tua Tagovailoa to pick through, all at +1000 or more. Take Hamlin out, and this is a wide-open contest.
And last up for today …
Offensive player of the year
It’s McCaffrey vs. Hill. The former is the -150 favorite at Caesars, the latter a +125 underdog at FanDuel. Best advice? Keep a close eye on odds movement, as there’s a chance you might be able to pick them both at plus odds should McCaffrey stumble and/or Hill go off and some sports betting sites are slow to react.
On to Week 16 …
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Now we’re 0-15.
Everything is fine, have a cup of coffee, never mind the flames.
This week, at DraftKings, give me over 40.5 in Jags-Bucs … the Panthers outright at home against the Packers … and the Colts outright on the road against the Falcons — with the grand total at +1107.
Rationale: The Jags and Bucs cannot stop the pass, ergo there will be a lot of passing. The Panthers are playing scrappy, are at home, and defend the pass exceedingly well. As for the Colts-Falcons? This is simple. Shane Steichen -infinity over Arthur Smith.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Down to 7-7 — but still profitable with these +160 bets at BetMGM, thanks to not going the dynamic teaser route.
This week, gimme the Colts +8.5 in Atlanta, the Panthers +10.5 at home against Green Bay, and the Broncos laying a point at home against New England.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Last week I pushed, saying the Browns as field goal favorites over the Bears made me nervous, and … they won by three. I guess I was right in being nervous.
This week, I’m going right back to the Colts and Falcons. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites because …? Why? I don’t get it.
Player props I like
Went 1-2 last week, down to 19-31. For the record, if my player props are bad — which they have been — then my DFS play is abysmal. No joy in Mudville over here.
Chuba Hubbard over 73.5 rushing yards, -115 at DraftKings: He’s accomplished this the last three weeks running. The Packers have been abysmal against the run.
David Njoku over 49.5 receiving yards, -115 at DraftKings. Njoku has hit this number five out of the last six weeks. Seems unlikely he won’t have the opportunity to smash it again.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
(Bleep) no.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Up to 6-9, with the Bengals just barely getting over the 2.5 points I gave to the Vikings. First time I’ve been lucky all year, it feels like. Anyway, this week, let’s keep the good vibes rolling. Give me the Panthers, +5! Oh yeah!
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