• Gasoline fell on a weekly basis but increased by 1.3% with the 4-week average
• US crude inventories hit highest levels since May 12th
• Gold eyes $2000 level ahead of NFP

Oil

Crude prices were initially lower after a surprising large build was followed by a global round of disappointing manufacturing data that did not do any favors for the demand outlook. Energy traders are not sure what to expect with the upcoming OPEC+ weekend meeting. ​ Trying to get a read on what Russia will do at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting is like Mike McDermott trying to beat Teddy KGB in no-limit Texas hold ’em before figuring out his tell. ​ Oil prices are finding some support as they are too close to critical support levels. If prices remain significantly under pressure going into the weekend, the Saudis might try convincing the Russians to take part in some type of modest production cut. ​

The EIA crude oil inventory report posted a rather large build of 4.489 million bpd, which was smaller than the increase API reported yesterday. ​ Demand softened across the board, but the declines across crude oil, gasoline and distillates was minimal.

If WTI crude breaks below the $67 level it could get ugly fast and momentum selling could eye a retest of the May lows. OPEC+ has mostly been successful in controlling prices and this could be a do-or-die moment if Brent can’t hold the $70 level. ​ ​ ​ ​

Gold

Gold prices are enjoying some soft US data that is bringing down those Fed rate hike odds. ​ Factory activity fell for a seventh month, prices paid are in freefall, and the weakening growth prospects should take care of the labor market. If the US jobs report doesn’t impress, that could be the catalyst that takes gold back above the $2000 level. ​

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains heavy and didn’t benefit from the latest data drop that supported the case for the Fed to skip hiking rates. ​ Bitcoin is still in the danger zone as it fights to hold the lower boundaries of its boring trading range. ​ The $26,000 level remains key support and could hold as long as a regulatory hammer doesn’t get thrown its way. ​