Just like in my BTTS column last week, two of the six matches let us down when it came to hitting the over 2.5 goals mark.
Once more we put up six matches, this time at a 20/1 price to see if we can get a W on the board…
Leg 1 – Ipswich Town vs Preston North End – 5/6
Our over 2.5 accumulator for this Saturday bypasses the Premier League and starts down in the Championship and at Portman Road where fans have certainly been witness to plenty of goals so far this season.
In five straight games in all competitions in Norfolk, this bet would have been a winner. Over 4.5 would have been a winner in four of them. It isn’t like it is just the Tractor Boys battering teams, 3-4, 3-2, 4-3 and another 3-2 are the score lines of those aforementioned four matches.
Preston have seen their fine start to the campaign drop off following 0-4 and 3-0 reversals at the hands of West Brom and Leicester in the past seven days. Both of those games though you’ll note cleared the mark we are looking for. I like plenty of goals once more in games involving these two sides.
Leg 2 – Crawley Town vs Wrexham – 1/2
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see why this game has been included. In 11 games in the league so far this season, Crawley matches have averaged 3.5 goals-per-game. If you’ve watched every Wrexham game then make that 4.2 goals-per-game.
In addition, Paul Mullin is back for the visitors and after scoring his first two goals of the campaign, I wouldn’t be shocked if he bags another brace on Saturday.
Plenty of goals potentially on tap at the Broadfield Stadium.
Leg 3 – Newport County vs Harrogate Town – 5/6
This leg could be added or discounted by whether you believe in positive or negative statistics more.
Newport County are top-of-the-pile in League 2 at 91% for over 2.5 coming in so far this young season. Excellent. Harrogate Town are rock bottom at 27%. Not so good.
So do you believe that the home side, who have scored 20 but conceded 22 through 11 games is a more pertinent statistic than Harrogate, who have scored just nine and let in 12.
I’m not going to write that I’m the eternal optimist because that would be a flat-out lie but I do like Newport’s run here and the only game where they failed to produce an over 2.5 scoreline was a 1-1 draw where they were down to ten-men in the first half.
Leg 4 – Stockport County vs Doncaster Rovers – 4/5
The third of three games from League 2 is once more heavily data-driven as 64% Stockport County entertain 73% Doncaster Rovers on Saturday afternoon.
Dave Challinor’s men are in fine form at the moment both in terms of wins and recording results where the over 2.5 pays out. They have won five straight and six of their past seven matches have seen three or more goals.
The only loser was a 2-0 home win on Tuesday night where the visitors went down to ten-men relatively early in the second half. Red cards often skew these bets so happy to toss that one out as a bit of a fluke.
Doncaster have gone over 2.5 in every game away from the Eco-Power Stadium so far this season. That is a very noteworthy stat.
Leg 5 – Gateshead vs Altrincham – 8/15
It feels like I put Gateshead matches in one of my columns every week and last weekend once again, they came through hitting both the over 2.5 and BTTS in a 3-1 defeat at Bromley.
The side from the North East have been BTTS/over 2.5 stars for me and my various columns with 12 of their 14 games (86%) seeing three or more goals being scored. It isn’t like the visitors on Saturday afternoon are exactly slouches in this department either, going ten of 14 (71%).
I feel that if you put Gateshead in these pieces, far more often than not, they come good, so happy to ride this bandwagon for another week.
Leg 6 – Queen’s Park vs Greenock Morton – 4/6
We finish up in Scotland for the second time today (this game is also in my Saturday BTTS Tips column) where woefully out-of-form Queen’s Park welcome in bottom-of-the-table Greenock Morton.
As I noted in my other piece, they are the two teams with the best BTTS record in the division and they are both well up there for over 2.5 as well (75% vs 71%) and after six-straight defeats, the home side need to get motoring and what better chance than taking on the side in dead last?
The thing is, because Queen’s Park have been playing so poorly, the visitors will fancy it as well. That should lead to an open game of football.
Games involving the home side have seen 30 goals scored in just seven league matches, which is a high-enough 3.8 goals-per-game with the visitors at 3.4 goals-per-game.
This game has a good chance to round off our 20/1 sixfold.