Serie A Betting Tips: Best Bets from Matchday 19

We are onto Matchday 19 in Serie A and our resident Italian Football expert Daniele Fishichella is here with his three Best Bets from across the top-flight in Italy this weekend…

The crown of ‘Campione d’Inverno’ (winter champions) is a purely Italian thing. Yet, despite there’s no prize for whichever team tops the league after 19 games, this fictitious title gets plenty of attention.

Perhaps is the psychological boost that the leaders receive, or, more simply, if you’re top after New Year the stats are definitely on your side. In fact, in 19 out of the last 27 occasions, the winter champions have also won the Scudetto at the end of the season.

Going into match day 19, Inter and Juventus are only two points apart, whereas last year’s runners-up, Lazio, are making a come back to the top-four race.

• A wake up call for the leaders
• Sarri’s on the charge
• Can Pippo help his brother?

Internazionale vs Verona (Saturday, time: 11:30)

The two points dropped in Genoa last Friday were the logical consequence for Inter who’ve been dealing with injuries to some of their key players (top scorer Lautaro Martinez above all) and fatigue.

Should the alarm bell ring for the Neroazurri who got just one win in the last three games and got knocked out from Coppa Italia by Bologna?

Inter should absolutely not panic, as they’ve consistently been the best side in Italy and have scored 10 goals more than Serie A’s second-best attack (Milan, 32).

Most likely the recent setbacks will sort the effects of a wake-up call for the leaders, but perhaps Simone Inzaghi might consider giving some of his players (for example Henrikh Mkhitaryan or Carlos Augusto) a bit of rest.

The likely signing in the January market of Canadian international Tajon Buchanan from Bruges will soon provide a much-needed option on the right-hand side.

Verona have only won one of the last five games, but are out of the relegation zone thanks to goal difference.

Their results have improved since they started playing with three up-front, however away from the Bentegodi they’ve only scored six times so far.

The hosts will attack right from the start, dominate possession and create chances.

Inter have collected 39 corners in their last four Serie A home games, but the peace of Ngonge and Suslov, if Verona manage to break, might also produce scoring opportunities.

Therefore over 9.5 corners at 5/6 looks a good option.

Udinese vs Lazio (Sunday, time: 14:00)

With two successes in the last two games, Lazio have, all of a sudden, given themselves an extra chance to fight for a top-four finish.

Last year’s runners-up have beaten Empoli and Frosinone, not without troubles, to win back-to-back Serie A games only for the second time this season.

Still without Ciro Immobile and Luis Alberto, Maurizio Sarri’s men have scored only 19 goals (11th attack in Italy’s top flight), and kept just six clean sheets.

Signs of a side that, since the departure of Milinkovic-Savic this summer, has struggled to find the right balance.

Despite Lazio trying to control games (they’re seventh for possession), they pose little threat going forward (only 211 shots so far, twelve teams, including Udinese, have done better). Although luck hasn’t always been on their side, in fact they’ve hit the post/bar 10 times this season.

Udinese are still underperforming in terms of xG (expected goals: +6.35), but lately have collected good results by switching to a counter-attack style of play.

Their 3-0 win over Bologna, when the Friulani only had 26% possession, was their first home victory since 8 May 2023.

In their last 11 games in all competitions, Gabriele Cioffi’s men have only failed to score once, when they got beaten 4-0 by Inter. It’s hard to trust any of these teams to keep a clean sheet, let’s go for both teams to score at 5/6.

Salernitana vs Juventus (Sunday, time:17:00)

Death, taxes and 1-0 to Juventus. The Bianconeri executed, one again, the game plan to perfection to beat Roma last Saturday and achieve their 12th one-nil win of 2023 in Serie A.

With 84 points collected in the past calendar year, there’s only one word to describe Juventus: outstanding.

Last season any other club would have crumbled following the sporting justice saga as the 10 points deduction was first given, then take away and finally confirmed towards the end of the campaign.

But, surrounded by adversities (including Pogba and Fagioli lengthy suspensions), Max Allegri and his men kept going and forged their resilience.

Allegri’s critics argue his team doesn’t look half as good on the eyes as Inter (they have got Serie A 7th best attack with 27 goals scored, only two more than Sassuolo and 15 less than the current leaders), but Juve mental strength and approach to games is unquestionable.

Apart from the 0-0 draw in Bergamo against Atalanta, the Bianconeri have mirrored Inter’s results so far, dropping points against Sassuolo, Bologna and Genoa.

Where the Neroazzurri won comfortably, Juve simply got the job done in unspectacular fashion. No matter what, they’ve got nine more points in the table compared to last year.

Two points adrift from salvation, Salernitana looked doomed a month ago, but have collected seven points in the last six games, scoring twice at home against both Lazio and Milan.

Last weekend, they finally achieved their first clean sheet of the season as they beat 1-0 Verona away.

Former Juventus striker Pippo Inzaghi, the brother of Inter’s manager Simone, will hope (or pray…) his men can repeat the performance against Serie A’s second-best defence.

Can they do it without last season top goalscorer (Dia, 14 goals)?

Salernitana have lost to nil three of the last four matches against Juventus, and, due to a freak coincidence, these two sides will meet in Turin on Thursday for the Coppa Italia Round of 16.

Juventus to win and Under 3.5 goals pays 21/20, thanks to the #PickYourPunt feature.

You can check out all of Daniele’s Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers…