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Technical Analysis – USDJPY inches above triangle; more efforts needed

Technical Analysis – USDJPY inches above triangle; more efforts needed

USDJPY traded inside a descending triangle, a typical indicator of a bearish reversal, but it somewhat played down that scenario when it crawled slightly above the negative formation on Tuesday. Nevertheless, traders may remain cautious as the technical signals in the four-hour chart remain discouraging.

Specifically, the RSI and the MACD are still hovering within the bullish area, but they have not shown a convincing improvement yet, with the former currently easing back towards its 50 neutral mark.

A bounce on the triangle’s upper boundary and the 20-period simple moving at 139.70 could prompt a rally towards May’s high of 140.91. Running higher, the bulls may face some congestion around the 142.15 barrier from November 21, a break of which could produce another leg up to the key resistance trendline at 143.30.

If Tuesday’s bullish breakout proves a false signal, with the price retreating inside the triangle, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upleg of 139.28 and the key floor of 138.75 could come to the rescue again. A stronger decline could touch the 38.2% Fibonacci of 138.19 and the 200-period EMA. Even lower, the bears might take a breather somewhere between the 50% Fibonacci level of 137.35 and the 2023 support trendline seen near 136.95.

In short, USDJPY is sustaining a neutral profile, with traders waiting for a decisive close above 140.91 or below 138.75 to drive the pair accordingly. 

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