Last week it was announced that the Blackpool South by-election will take place on the same day as the local elections and I wonder if the by-election is what, rather than the locals, triggers a vote of confidence in Sunak.
If the Tories finish behind Reform that might spread blind panic amongst Tory MPs that this is happening so close to a general election.
As far as I can see only Smarkets have a betting market on the by-election but there is no liquidity there hopefully that will soon change.
TSE
