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Energy traders afraid to be short heading into OPEC weekend meeting

Energy traders afraid to be short heading into OPEC weekend meeting

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  • JMMC and OPEC+ ministerial meeting  on Sunday June 4th
  • Gold’s weekly gain hurt as traders price in one more hike
  • Bitcoin holds onto $27,000 for now

Oil

Crude prices are having a strong finish to the week after the US jobs report showed the economy is not ready to head into a recession. ​ Oil was heavier throughout the earlier part of the week on disappointing Chinese data and expectations that OPEC+ would not be able to deliver more production cuts despite the Saudi warning to short-sellers. ​ ​

With oil at uncomfortable levels for most energy production countries, no one wants to be short crude going into a weekend OPEC+ meeting. It seems the oil market is doubtful a consensus for another output cut can be reached between the Saudis and Russians, but traders should never underestimate what the Saudis will do and leverage during OPEC+ meetings. ​ ​ ​ ​

Gold

Gold is tumbling after a resilient labor market delays calls for a recession. ​ Gold was almost in the clear as a couple of Fed doves had markets convinced that policymakers would skip a June rate hike. ​ If the data cooperated, some traders were making the case that they might even be done. The US economy is too resilient and that should keep the risk of more Fed tightening on the table. ​

The problem for gold is that even once markets are convinced the Fed is done, we will still have to see how much dollar strength we see as the Treasury refills its coffers over the next several months. There is too much money on the sidelines that still will prefer dollar-denominated assets. ​ ​ ​ ​

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is holding steady after a busy week filled with a debt limit deal, a complicated jobs report that showed both robust hiring and surging layoffs, and as lawmakers inch towards figuring out how to regulate crypto. A new bill, the Securities Clarity Act, is being discussed could provide guidance that clarifies if some tokens are unregistered securities. ​ ​

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