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Week Ahead – Will OPEC+ announce another cut? Deflationary spiral in China?

Week Ahead – Will OPEC+ announce another cut? Deflationary spiral in China?

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OPEC+

Oil prices are rallying at the end of the week, perhaps a sign of nerves appearing before the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. While there seems to be a widely held view that the group won’t announce any further cuts, it’s worth noting that the same was true at the last meeting when it announced cuts of roughly another million barrels.

And while there have been comments to suggest the alliance isn’t likely to cut output this weekend, it’s hard to ignore the warnings from the Saudi energy minister to “watch out”, threatening more “ouching” for short speculators. This may be playing into the mind of traders fearing another surge on the open next week.

US

The US Federal government will not run out of cash and can pay its bills on Monday.  Now that the debt ceiling drama is over, the focus shifts back to how resilient this economy is and will the disinflation process resume.  

Economic data for the week will focus on the service sector, trade deficit, and jobless claims. The ISM services index is expected to show service sector activity improved from 51.9 to 52.5.  Trade data should show the deficit widened.  Jobless claims are expected to surge at some point and that will lead to cooling wage pressures and support the case that disinflation trends are firmly entrenched.  

The Fed’s blackout period is here, so appearances will stop until the June 14 FOMC decision.  

Eurozone

Next week offers plenty of economic data but nothing that will move the needle as far as the ECB is concerned. ECB speak may be of more interest ahead of the next meeting on 15 June when the central bank may hike rates for the final time. The inflation data for May was surprisingly good but the next few months may be less so given some of the more unfavourable base effects.

UK 

There’s very little on the agenda next week with the final services PMI the only notable release. All the focus now is on the inflation data and BoE rate decision a couple of weeks after.

Russia

The Russian central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Friday. The decision comes hours before the release of the May CPI inflation data which is expected to be marginally higher than the previous month at 2.4%. 

South Africa

GDP data is released on Tuesday and will tell us whether the economy is already in recession after an aggressive tightening cycle. The data has been very volatile in recent quarters.

Turkey

With the Presidential election behind us, focus switches back to the economy and the CBRT’s ongoing unorthodox monetary policy approach. Next week we get inflation data which is expected to slip back below 40% but remain extraordinarily high. 

Switzerland

A couple of economic releases of note next week, CPI for May being the standout. Inflation is expected to slip back to 2.2% which remains above the SNB target but only marginally so. Markets are pricing in a more than 80% probability of a hike at the next meeting on 22 June.

China

With another month of weak official NBS Manufacturing PMI data for May, market participants will turn their attention towards the Caixin Services PMI (consists of more data from small and medium enterprises) out on Monday; the forecast is pegged at 55, a dip from 56.4 in April. If it turns out as forecast, it will mark two consecutive months of growth slowdown from March’s 28-month high of 57.8.

On Wednesday, we will have trade and foreign exchange reserves data for May. Another month of lackustre trade numbers is expected, exports growth is seen slowing further to 7% year-on-year from 8.5% in April while a slight improvement is anticipated in imports to narrow its contraction to -5% year-on-year from -7.9% printed in April. If these trade data come in as forecasted, it is likely to cement a weakening global and internal demand environment.

A further decline in the respective input and output prices sub-components of the latest NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs data for May has increased the risk of a deflationary spiral taking shape in China. The paramount focus will be on May’s consumer inflation and PPI (factory gate prices) to be released on Friday. Another month of weak readings are expected, 0.2% year-on-year for consumer inflation rate vs. 0.1% in April and -2.8% year-on-year for PPI vs. -3.6% in April.  

If this latest set of key economic data continues to come in below expectations it points to a further growth deceleration in China. Policymakers may need to rethink their current targeted expansionary and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies stances.

India

The services PMI will be out on Monday and is forecast at 60.5, a dip from 62.0 recorded in April which was the strongest reading since June 2010.

India’s central bank, the RBI, will release its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, the consensus is expecting no change in the benchmark policy repo rate at 6.5% after a surprise pause in April that came after six consecutive interest rate hikes.

On Friday, we will get industrial production for April where a slight dip to 1% year-on-year is being forecasted from 1.1% in March, its lowest growth since October 2022.

Australia

Several key data and events to focus on. On Monday, Melbourne Institute (MI) will release its latest monthly inflation gauge report for May where it is expected to show an increase to 0.4% month-on-month after a dip to 0.2% in April, a four-month low.

Australia’s central bank, the RBA, will release its latest monetary policy decision on Tuesday. No change is expected leaving the cash rate at 3.85% after a surprise hike of 25 basis points during the prior meeting in May that pushed up borrowing costs to their highest level since April 2012.

Q1 GDP growth will be released on Wednesday, expected to be 0.3% quarter-on-quarter vs. 0.5% in Q4 2022 and 2.4% year-on-year vs. 2.7% in Q4 2022. To round off the week, trade data for April will be released on Thursday; a decline is forecast for its trade surplus to A$11.7 billion from A$15.27 billion recorded in March, its largest surplus since June 2022.

New Zealand

A quiet week where we will have two key data to focus on; Q1 manufacturing sales on Tuesday where the forecast is set for a return to growth at 1.5% year-on-year from a contraction of -9.9% recorded in Q4 2022.

On Friday, we will have manufacturing PMI for May where a slight improvement is being forecasted at 49.9 vs. 49.1 printed in April.

Japan

Several key data to focus on to determine whether the ongoing growth recovery is sustainable following robust surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors for May.

On Tuesday, we will have household spending for April where an improvement is being forecasted; -0.9% year-on-year from -1.9% in March, -0.2% month-on-month from -0.8% in March. Data on average cash earnings will also be released on the same day, forecast is set for a slight improvement to 0.9% year-on-year for April from 0.8% recorded in March.

On Wednesday, the preliminary reading for the leading economic index for April is expected to show an improvement at 98.2 from 97.7 in March.

On Thursday, the current account for April, finalised Q1 GDP, and bank leading for May will be released. A slight improvement is forecast for bank lending at 3.3% year-on-year in May from 3.2% in April. If it turns out as forecasted, it will be a retest on its 22-month high of 3.3% in loans growth recorded in February.

Singapore

Two key data to focus on. Firstly, retail sales for April where a further decline in growth is being forecast; 3.1% year-on-year vs. 4.5% in March and 0.5% month-on-month from 2.2% in March.

Secondly, foreign exchange reserves data for May is forecast to be almost the same at S$416 billion from S$416.3 billion recorded in April; its largest figure since June 2022.


Economic Calendar

Sunday, June 4

Economic Events

OPEC+ production meeting: Expected to keep output at current levels or slightly lower them. 

Monday, June 5

Economic Data/Events

US factory orders, ISM services

China Caixin services PMI

Eurozone Services PMI, PPI

Singapore retail sales

ECB President Lagarde appears at European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs

Apple’s Worldwide Developers week-long conference begins

Week-long maintenance starts for the Turkstream pipeline, which carries Russian gas to Turkey and southeastern Europe

Tuesday, June 6

Economic Data/Events

RBA rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 3.85%

Australia current account

Eurozone retail sales

Germany factory orders

Japan household spending

Mexico international reserves

Poland rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%

South Africa GDP

Spain industrial production

Thailand CPI

Wednesday, June 7

Economic Data/Events

US trade, consumer credit

BOC rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 4.50%

Australia GDP

Chile copper exports, trade

China forex reserves, trade

France trade

Germany industrial production

Greece GDP

UK PM Rishi Sunak visits President Biden in Washington

EIA crude oil inventory data

OECD releases latest global economic outlook

ECB’s Holzmann presents the Austrian financial stability report

RBA Gov Lowe delivers a speech at Morgan Stanley Australia Summit in Sydney

RBA Deputy Governor Bullock speaks at Australian Banking Association Annual Conference

Thursday, June 8

Economic Data/Events

US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims

Australia trade balance

Bulgaria GDP

Chile CPI

Eurozone GDP

India rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 6.50%

Japan GDP

Mexico CPI

Peru rate decision

Saudi Arabia GDP

South Africa manufacturing production, current account

Bank of Italy reports on balance sheet aggregates

Friday, June 9

Economic Data/Events

Canada unemployment

China aggregate financing, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans

Italy industrial production

Japan M2 money stock

Mexico industrial production

Russia rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 7.50%

Russia CPI

Turkey industrial production

Sovereign Rating Updates

Greece (Fitch)

Spain (DBRS)

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