• Tyrod Taylor and the New York Giants visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football in Week 6
• The Giants vs Bills point spread is the biggest in the NFL this season
• See the Giants vs Bills odds plus expert picks and predictions for the SNF mismatch

Bettors will find the biggest spread of this still-young NFL season on the board for the Sunday Night Football game between the New York Giants (1-4, 1-2 away, 0-5 ATS) and Buffalo Bills (3-2, 2-1 home, 3-2 ATS) on Oct. 15.

Returning from an unproductive London trip that featured a 25-20 loss to Jacksonville, the Bills are positioned as 15-point favorites over the floundering Giants, who will be without starting QB Daniel Jones (for better or worse).

New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills Odds & Spread

The Bills are -1400 on the moneyline with the G-Men coming back at +800 to pull off the upset in the Week 6 NFL odds. This line did tick up a point when it was announced former Bills pivot Tyrod Taylor would fill in for Jones.

One of the more stunning parts of the Giants/Bills odds is that, despite the 15-point spread, the game total is at just 44. The spread and total together project a 29.5-14.5 Buffalo victory. Buffalo’s -1400 moneyline odds carry an implied win probability of 93.3%.

As of early Sunday morning, 82% of the ATS handle was on the Bills to cover in the NFL public betting splits. The public was also hammering the over to the tune of 72% of game-total handle.

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The Bills’ Super Bowl odds have faded slightly from the start of the season – from +900 to +975 on average – but the three-time reigning AFC East champs are still viewed as a legitimate contender to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

After squeaking into the NFL playoff bracket last year, the Giants started the 2023 campaign at a reasonably-optimistic +5250 to win it all. That number has faded to +35000 – a 0.28% implied win probability – thanks to their 1-4 start.

 NYG vs BUF Injury Reports

Jones isn’t the only New York starter out in Week 6. The Giants head into Sunday Night Football a veritable MASH unit. Two starters on the offensive line are out: Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and John Michael Schmitz Jr (shoulder) are both out.

The defense is, at least, in better shape. Only backup linebacker Azeez Ojulari (ankle) is ruled out, while starter Micah McFadden (ankle) is questionable.

Running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) is also listed as questionable, but he was a limited participant at practice from Wednesday to Friday, suggesting he’ll be in uniform. Starting tight end Darren Waller (groin) also has a questionable tag.

Unlike the Giants, the Bills come into Week 6 with minimal injuries. They have been hardest hit at the tight end position where both Dawson Knox (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (concussion) are listed as questionable after being limited participants are practice all week. Kincaid has 118 yards on 17 receptions this season, while Knox has 75 yards and a TD on 11 catches.

Nickel corner Dane Jackson (foot) is also questionable. Jackson did not practice at all until Friday, when he was limited.

Could Tyrod Taylor Be Much Worse Than Daniel Jones?

After leading the Giants to a Wild-Card berth last year – while posting career-highs in yards (3,205), completion percentage (67.2), and passer rating (92.5) – expectations were high for Jones entering his fifth season.

Instead, Jones is averaging just 176.8 passing yards per game with two touchdowns and six interceptions through five weeks. Playing behind a banged-up and underperforming offensive line, Jones has already been sacked 28 times. That has him on pace for 95.2 sacks over 17 games. (The single-season record is 72 courtesy of David Carr in 2002.)

Taylor, the Bills starter from 2015-17, as a mobile game-manager. His only action in the past year-plus has been in garbage time. Now 34 years old, the Virginia Tech product is sure to be a step or two slower than in his prime (though I do expect to seem him scrambling for a decent number of yards over the course of the game).

The Week 6 NFL player props list Taylor with a passing-yards over/under ranging from 175.5 to 184.5, along with a rushing-yards o/u of 24.5.

With Daniel Jones out, we have a Tyrod Taylor revenge game against the Bills

The Giants are currently +15.5 on Sunday Night Football pic.twitter.com/DnlqYpLWl3

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) October 13, 2023

New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

With all the injuries on offense and Taylor starting his first game in over a year, this game has debacle written all over it.

The Josh Allen-era Bills have a penchant for blowing out inferior teams. Despite their 3-2 record, they have the best point differential in the AFC at +79.  Their wins have come by 28 (Raiders), 34 (Commanders), and 28 (Dolphins). They also posted the best point differential in the conference in 2021 (+194) and 2022 (+169) thanks to semi-regular blowout victories.

The Giants defense, a strength last season, has been torn apart in 2023, surrendering an average of 30.6 PPG. Only the Bears, Commanders, and Broncos have been worse, points-wise. They have certainly faced a gauntlet of offenses to date, including the Cowboys, 49ers, and Dolphins, but they’ll be doing so again – in hostile territory – this Sunday.

The Giants embarrassment of a season is somehow going to get worse before it gets better. But I will take a chance on a highly-motivated Tyrod Taylor finding success with his legs.

Giants vs Bills Picks:

• Bills first-half -8.5 (-112)
•  Tyrod Taylor over 49.5 rushing yards (+425)

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